Some people think that it takes too much money to win the big payouts that the Kentucky Derby offers, and therefore only rich people can win. Others believe that there are simply too many comparable horses to make an effective bet. I have found that neither of these is necessarily true.
Get in the pools
What is a swimming pool? In parimutuel betting, a pool is the collective dollar amount of all bets on a particular type of bet. The Kentucky Derby has the largest playing fields of all North American horse racing. For example, last year’s Total Mutuel Pool Derby was $47 million for all types of bets.
Last year, Exacta Pool was $21 million, Trifecta $25 million, and Superfecta Pool was $8.5 million, all of which are huge. Exacta and Trifecta pools are bigger because they are easier to come by and since a lot of people win them, the payouts are not as big as Superfecta, even though their pool is 1/3.
To illustrate, last year’s payments were: Exacta $152, Trifecta $2,337, Superfecta $202,569. You can see that Trifecta is the most popular bet because you can win a lot of money without spending too much, but the Superfecta payout was huge and probably provided a score that changed the lives of many.
The highest recorded Super was in 2005 when Giacomo won 50-1. The $1 Super Payout and an astronomical $864,000! That means (after track removal) there were only 7 winning tickets out of the $7.4 million wagered. There were certainly at least 1 or 2 rags to rich stories that year.
Get some takeout
This is the percentage of the betting fund that the track takes for itself and uses to pay for operating costs, taxes and profits. Typically around 17% for win/place/show and 20-25% for exotic bets (Exacta/Tri/Super) and vertical bets (Pick 3, Pick 4, etc.)
Churchill Downs is a particularly good betting track as it has the lowest track withdrawals overall in North America at 19%. This is another reason why the Derby can be so profitable.
all the pretty horses
The Kentucky Derby also has the largest field of any North American dirt race, with 20 horses, sometimes a few fewer, after some are deemed unfit to run before the race. Such a large field can turn into a chaotic race, and with so many horses, how can you choose which one to bet on?
Some people just bet on a horse because they like the name, or the colors horses wear, or their mount number, or just because they think the horse is pretty. Some win those bets too, but let’s face it, that’s pure luck. To be effective, you need a system.
be systematic
Years ago, while I was busy on certain online horse racing forums, a man claimed that he had a system where a horse had to meet a dozen or more criteria to qualify as a Derby champion. He said that it had worked every year for several decades. Well, that year his system failed, as the winner didn’t meet a couple of his criteria.
Another horse player decided there was some merit to his system, but a couple of those criteria were somewhat random, and while most Derby champions had them, they weren’t concrete. He did some more digging and found more factors that more than 95% of Derby champions had in common.
Furthermore, he found that the Derby champion who broke some of his rules could easily have been accounted for with some solid calculations of speed figures that could be used as a yardstick.
GET THE NETWORK
After that, he researched and found dozens more factors that could be used as criteria that were very common among Derby champions. Some were statistically tested; others were wise betting angles. He added them to his spreadsheet as irrelevant criteria.
What is the NETWORK? It’s a very large spreadsheet, combining critical and non-critical criteria, speed figure calculations, performance data, dosage and pedigree information, as well as the regular information you’d find on older performance forms like DRF or BRIS.
Numerical scores are assigned to the set of scores for critical and non-critical criteria, and for speed calculations.
Works?
It does! 11 of the last 13 Derby champions had both the required high critical score and the highest compound speed calculations on GRID. A 12th winner (Mine That Bird 50-1 in 2009) could be determined by having the highest pace estimate. Don’t waste your time trying to figure out Giacomo.
Regardless, 12 of the last 13, or even 11 of 13, isn’t bad, right? Considering just one of the easier Trifecta payouts could cover the rest of your Derby bets for over 12 years. In the last 10 Derby races, 4 Trifectas have paid 5 figures and one even 6 figures (Giacomo again).
On top of that, it probably would have worked many decades earlier if it had already been invented, since the criteria are based on data going back several decades. Some factors even outweigh the Derby’s 137-year lifespan.
receive payments
Last year, having further refined the GRID, it was automatic to identify Super Saver as the winner, with the highest Critical Score, Total Score and Composite Speed figures. This resulted in an easy Trifecta of $2300, not to mention a solid win/place/show payout at 8-1.
Due to the aforementioned large pools, the Derby often has large payouts. Let’s examine the payments of the last 10 editions. The Trifecta was 4 digits twice, 5 digits 4 times, and once reached 6 digits.
The $1 Super Payout went 6 digits 3 times, almost 4 times, and only missed 5 digits once. Because the playing field has recently leveled with increased drug testing, race results have become a bit more random, leading to higher payouts. But that you can also take advantage of.
You can win too!
To take advantage of this advanced handicap system, you must have the GRID. This is available at HorseRaceBetWin.com. It is the only grid that combines all of these powerful criteria and effectively classifies horses based on speed as well as critical historical criteria. There is simply no competitor.
You can get the GRID and win 9 out of 10 times, or bet on the horses by name, number or color and maybe get 1 out of 10. Your decision.
