If you followed my free baseball picks, you would have noticed that the Cincinnati Reds were my handicap kryptonite. It seemed like every time he picked them to win, they would lose. I was 8-14 (-6 units) betting on them in 2005.

The Reds typified the kind of team an astute handicapper would want to bet on given the right situation. 1) They are a bad team. 2) The audience does not like to bet on them. 3) They have a poor pitch to increase their odds. 4) They have a decent hit. 5) Their horrible record on the road masked the fact that they were actually a decent team to bet on at home.

In 2006, they were 31-50 (-11 points) on the road but 42-39 (+3 points) at home. The disparity was big, so we tried to pick our spots by backing these Reds at home. We didn’t do a good job with these Reds but we had great success with other teams using the same methodology. (Read our article on the Devilrays)

The problem with the Reds is that they have horrible pitching from their starting rotation to their bullpen. We liked it in a way because it gives us great odds.

The Reds were a great team to bet on the Overs in 2005. In their home games the average total score was 11.2 runs in 2005. Their average away total score was only 9.9 points. When people think of a lot of runs scored, they think of the Rockies at home, they don’t always think of the Reds.

Until they do, we’ll keep celebrating their homes whenever we find the right spots.