So it’s the start of the MLB exhibition season and everyone’s excited, because it’s a few weeks away from the season opener. How exactly do you bet on the MLB exhibition anyway? A closer look at MLB exhibition baseball betting reveals just how much a coin is tossed. Let’s look at some of the fundamentals that affect the exhibition games you might want to bet on.
If you’re at least a semi-decent sports bettor, the first thing (or one of the first things) you should do is check for any injured or missing players. Having a star missing from a team can affect the outcome of a game. In fact, if a major player is out, they may skip the play entirely. Enter exhibition baseball and it’s cloudy playing the picture. In an exhibition game, you don’t know who will play until the game is being played. Last time I checked, no bookmaker would allow you to bet on the action after it happens. If you find one, please let me know.
Looking at the scores of MLB exhibition games, it becomes obvious that the “stars” are played sparingly. For example, a starting pitcher who already has a spot on the team could see up to 2 entries of work. He’s hit or miss with position players. They can play a full game or just one at bat. Plus, it’s the exhibition, so players who have established jobs are more likely to try new pitches, new swings, and work on mechanics. The game turns into a roller coaster.
The second problem that plagues baseball exhibition betting is what I like to call hooks. A hook is basically a fixed point when you, as the manager, make a change. In the regular season, for example, if a relief pitcher comes in and has a bad time, chances are he’ll be replaced quickly. However, in exhibition baseball, you don’t have to worry about losing, as the games don’t matter. Teams, say by one or two runs, have no problem letting a pitcher give up a lot of runs in one inning. Your team could be sailing and Mr. Poor Pitcher takes the mound. In just one entry of work, since hooks are non-existent, he could throw the game overboard.
For these reasons, most MLB exhibition games are set up where the favorite is typically a slight value, typically -1.10 to -1.30. You will find that the “home” team is always favored unless the away team is perceived to be a better team in the regular season. For example, if the home team were the Detroit Tigers and the visiting team was the New York Yankees, the Yankees would most likely be the favorites. These games turn into multi-hour coin tosses. A quick analysis of the action on a randomly selected day of exhibition baseball revealed that of the 10 exhibition games, 6 favorites and 4 underdogs won. It’s pretty even.
A better use for the MLB exhibition season would be to monitor talent and prepare for regular season betting. However, if you must roll action, good luck to you. Some people do better on exhibition bets, because there isn’t much to think about. Many sports bettors simply pick a favorite and bet on it.
