This year’s big game in college football looks set to be a very exciting competition.
The 2010 BCS features a Heisman Trophy winner who is a remarkable athlete, two undefeated teams and two high-powered offenses.
The game is understandably getting a lot of attention and media attention.
But who will win this great game and why?
Last year my colleague, Carlton Chin, and I wrote a book called Who Will Win the Big Game? 50 Characteristics of championship athletes, teams and coaches. The book identifies the mathematical and psychological factors that produce winners in major sporting events.
We have successfully chosen the winners of several contests and are sharing our data with coaches, athletes and team owners who want to win more often and produce champions.
The book has appeared in The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal.
Carlton, an MIT-trained quant, crunched the numbers and identified the mental factors that allow winners to excel under pressure. My research is based on my coaching experiences with thousands of top athletes at StayInTheZone.com
Oregon looks like the winner: here’s why
Oregon has been the PAC Ten champion two years in a row. This shows that the team is consistent and has managed big games for two years.
Oregon also has a huge advantage in errors and turnovers. Oregon racked up 35 takeouts and was second in the nation in this category.
Oregon has 13+ turnovers while Auburn has 5+.
Conventional wisdom and history seem to tell us that great games are won and lost on mistakes and the ability to capitalize on mistakes, which is what these numbers are all about.
Oregon also gets the nod in points allowed. Their defense has given up 221 points this year while Auburn has given up 318 during the same season. Some will say that the SEC is a tougher conference than the PAC 10. However, this still equates to an additional eight or eight points allowed in each game.
Oregon’s defense allows 4.5 yards per play. Auburn allows 5.3 yards per play.
Auburn threw six interceptions for 261 assists. Oregon threw just seven of 353 assists.
Auburn has a slight edge in rushing yards per attempt.
Oregon has beaten just about every opponent with ease. Auburn has had some close wins. This shows that Auburn is tough and strong, but Oregon appears to be more stable and consistent.
Having the Heisman Trophy winner could be problematic for Auburn, as the Oregon players will have some added incentive to steal some of the limelight from Cam Newton.
Football players at this level are very competitive and beating the best player in the nation can inspire the Oregon Ducks to play with more vigor and intensity. Some players will be determined to steal some of Newton’s thunder while playing this great game.
Newton’s off-field controversy could also be a bit of a distraction, especially if more news about these issues emerges before the game.
While many Auburn fans will travel to Arizona, Oregon is used to playing in this part of the country and may have a bit of an advantage in fan support because they are closer to home.
For those of you who like to bet on sports, it seems like Oregon is well worth the three points you get from the people who set the odds on these games.
